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Caerphilly · report

House prices in Caerphilly: the next 12 months

Sale prices have an 80% chance of landing between £192,405 and £220,972 by August 2027.

Expected, August 2027
£206,689
Chance of a rise
77%

Caerphilly: five years of prices and the expected path

Average sale price per home, £, monthly, with the next 12 months' expected path

  • Caerphilly
  • Wales
  • United Kingdom
  • Expected path
  • 80% range
Show the numbers
PeriodCaerphillyWalesUnited Kingdom
Aug 2027 · Expected path£206,689 (£192,405–£220,972)£224,653£280,154
Jul 2027 · Expected path£206,010 (£192,439–£219,580)£223,962£279,560
Jun 2027 · Expected path£205,331 (£192,493–£218,170)£223,271£278,967
May 2027 · Expected path£204,653 (£192,569–£216,736)£222,581£278,374
Apr 2027 · Expected path£203,974 (£192,673–£215,275)£221,890£277,781
Mar 2027 · Expected path£203,295 (£192,810–£213,781)£221,199£277,188
Feb 2027 · Expected path£202,617 (£192,990–£212,244)£220,508£276,595
Jan 2027 · Expected path£201,938 (£193,224–£210,652)£219,817£276,002
Dec 2026 · Expected path£201,260 (£193,532–£208,987)£219,126£275,409
Nov 2026 · Expected path£200,581 (£193,947–£207,215)£218,436£274,816
Oct 2026 · Expected path£199,902 (£194,534–£205,271)£217,745£274,223
Sep 2026 · Expected path£199,224 (£195,462–£202,986)£217,054£273,630
Aug 2026£198,545£216,363£273,037
Jul 2026£196,768£214,167£272,146
Jun 2026£197,743£212,315£270,690
May 2026£197,610£215,787£272,221
Apr 2026£198,257£213,662£270,966
Mar 2026£195,969£214,009£268,631
Feb 2026£194,645£212,147£269,423
Jan 2026£190,762£210,347£268,814
Dec 2025£191,397£212,902£268,002
Nov 2025£189,780£210,567£270,472
Oct 2025£190,695£211,527£269,819
Sep 2025£188,633£211,004£269,556
Aug 2025£190,185£209,851£270,575
Jul 2025£189,543£209,546£268,843
Jun 2025£186,217£209,486£266,796
May 2025£182,019£206,642£264,078
Apr 2025£181,029£205,275£260,162
Mar 2025£186,311£207,151£268,019
Feb 2025£188,713£205,266£264,771
Jan 2025£190,718£206,010£264,936
Dec 2024£190,022£204,641£263,991
Nov 2024£190,378£207,435£264,515
Oct 2024£186,863£207,454£265,252
Sep 2024£185,271£203,822£264,750
Aug 2024£184,320£207,156£265,085
Jul 2024£184,108£204,982£262,479
Jun 2024£180,795£204,368£259,585
May 2024£178,351£199,330£258,565
Apr 2024£178,117£199,545£256,478
Mar 2024£179,078£200,795£255,082
Feb 2024£178,962£199,272£254,633
Jan 2024£179,533£197,808£255,972
Dec 2023£181,521£202,077£256,177
Nov 2023£181,966£201,778£258,368
Oct 2023£182,412£202,477£260,129
Sep 2023£180,317£204,460£261,318
Aug 2023£179,523£203,852£262,602
Jul 2023£177,585£202,620£261,182
Jun 2023£174,741£200,183£258,275
May 2023£174,983£199,616£257,330
Apr 2023£173,836£195,717£256,479
Mar 2023£176,889£199,167£255,885
Feb 2023£178,054£200,870£258,788
Jan 2023£183,274£201,853£260,941
Dec 2022£183,963£206,563£263,190
Nov 2022£184,704£205,941£265,299
Oct 2022£181,929£208,209£265,693
Sep 2022£180,604£207,696£265,727
Aug 2022£179,930£204,218£265,124
Jul 2022£176,049£203,313£262,904
Jun 2022£171,319£200,277£258,118
May 2022£167,285£196,682£255,040
Apr 2022£165,521£195,875£252,167
Mar 2022£168,219£191,471£249,232
Feb 2022£168,179£189,656£248,309
Jan 2022£167,012£191,552£248,031
Dec 2021£163,483£189,741£245,189
Nov 2021£160,182£186,520£243,930
Oct 2021£158,615£186,951£239,236
Sep 2021£156,515£185,561£245,371

What the model expects

The central estimate at each horizon, and the range prices land in 8 times out of 10.

HorizonExpected80% rangeChance of a riseChance of beating inflation
In 3 months (November 2026)£200,581£193,947 – £207,21565%52%
In 4 months (December 2026)£201,260£193,532 – £208,98767%53%
In 12 months (August 2027)£206,689£192,405 – £220,97277%54%

The outlook carries the region's own monthly price history forward: the recent trend and how far prices usually stray from it. It knows nothing about interest-rate decisions, new laws or local projects, so read it as a description of momentum, not a forecast to act on.

Other reports for Caerphilly

At the average sale price, a home costs £198,545. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is £916 a month. The UK sets no cap on the payment; no more than 15% of new mortgages may lend over 4.5 times income.

Payment, two incomes
16%
Payment, one income
31%

Renting the average home costs less each month than owning it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the average sale price; rent is the average of all private tenancies. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.

Rent per month
£752
Owning per month
£935

47.0% more homes were started in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.

Started, 12 months
312
Per 1,000 residents
1.8

Figures for United Kingdom: Caerphilly has no reliable figures of its own.

Buyers living abroad bought 1.8% of the homes sold here in the four quarters to Q1 2025.

Bought by buyers abroad, 12 months
1.8%

Sale prices have fallen by 3% or more 12 times since 1995. The deepest began in April 2008.

Deepest fall
−20.1%
Recovery from the low
93 months

In 2025 the population fell by 152 while 247 homes were finished.

Homes finished, 2025
247
Population change, 2025
−152

4.8% of the 80,211 homes counted in the 2021 census had nobody usually living in them.

Empty, 2021 census
4.8%
Empty homes
3,835