Lagoa · report
Past price cycles in Lagoa
Bank valuations have fallen by 3% or more 15 times since 2015. The deepest began in January 2017.
- Deepest fall
- −24.6%
- Recovery from the low
- 7 months
Prices in Lagoa and Portugal, indexed
Bank valuations, both set to 100 in May 2015.
- Lagoa
- Portugal
- 100 = May 2015
Show the numbers
| Period | Lagoa | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 309.0 | 296.6 |
| Aug 2026 | 305.5 | 293.5 |
| Jul 2026 | 321.4 | 291.7 |
| Jun 2026 | 328.6 | 290.1 |
| May 2026 | 324.0 | 287.5 |
| Apr 2026 | 293.6 | 283.1 |
| Mar 2026 | 287.4 | 280.1 |
| Feb 2026 | 265.9 | 276.3 |
| Jan 2026 | 288.9 | 274.1 |
| Dec 2025 | 288.9 | 271.0 |
| Nov 2025 | 279.5 | 268.2 |
| Oct 2025 | 270.3 | 263.7 |
| Sep 2025 | 252.7 | 259.8 |
| Aug 2025 | 252.5 | 255.9 |
| Jul 2025 | 255.6 | 253.3 |
| Jun 2025 | 267.0 | 248.8 |
| May 2025 | 280.7 | 245.6 |
| Apr 2025 | 251.4 | 243.0 |
| Mar 2025 | 242.5 | 240.5 |
| Feb 2025 | 229.5 | 235.7 |
| Jan 2025 | 232.3 | 231.0 |
| Dec 2024 | 243.3 | 227.5 |
| Nov 2024 | 242.7 | 226.6 |
| Oct 2024 | 256.3 | 224.1 |
| Sep 2024 | 236.4 | 220.7 |
| Aug 2024 | 226.6 | 216.7 |
| Jul 2024 | 230.1 | 213.3 |
| Jun 2024 | 215.0 | 210.7 |
| May 2024 | 224.8 | 209.6 |
| Apr 2024 | 214.1 | 207.8 |
| Mar 2024 | 215.0 | 205.7 |
| Feb 2024 | 211.2 | 203.1 |
| Jan 2024 | 202.0 | 201.8 |
| Dec 2023 | 194.8 | 200.0 |
| Nov 2023 | 190.0 | 199.2 |
| Oct 2023 | 200.3 | 200.0 |
| Sep 2023 | 200.5 | 200.7 |
| Aug 2023 | 206.0 | 200.3 |
| Jul 2023 | 214.4 | 198.6 |
| Jun 2023 | 211.3 | 197.7 |
| May 2023 | 201.0 | 196.6 |
| Apr 2023 | 197.8 | 194.1 |
| Mar 2023 | 200.8 | 193.1 |
| Feb 2023 | 204.2 | 192.4 |
| Jan 2023 | 224.2 | 193.4 |
| Dec 2022 | 216.0 | 189.8 |
| Nov 2022 | 210.8 | 188.7 |
| Oct 2022 | 205.7 | 184.9 |
| Sep 2022 | 214.0 | 186.1 |
| Aug 2022 | 210.2 | 184.1 |
| Jul 2022 | 204.9 | 184.5 |
| Jun 2022 | 179.1 | 183.2 |
| May 2022 | 172.7 | 179.7 |
| Apr 2022 | 175.6 | 176.6 |
| Mar 2022 | 170.5 | 173.3 |
| Feb 2022 | 181.8 | 171.1 |
| Jan 2022 | 167.1 | 168.2 |
| Dec 2021 | 171.5 | 167.3 |
| Nov 2021 | 169.6 | 165.6 |
| Oct 2021 | 167.5 | 162.9 |
| Sep 2021 | 167.7 | 160.9 |
| Aug 2021 | 153.5 | 159.0 |
| Jul 2021 | 151.6 | 159.0 |
| Jun 2021 | 141.2 | 158.2 |
| May 2021 | 140.7 | 157.8 |
| Apr 2021 | 140.1 | 156.3 |
| Mar 2021 | 143.5 | 154.6 |
| Feb 2021 | 143.5 | 152.9 |
| Jan 2021 | 153.4 | 152.3 |
| Dec 2020 | 156.9 | 150.5 |
| Nov 2020 | 161.1 | 149.0 |
| Oct 2020 | 164.9 | 147.3 |
| Sep 2020 | 158.1 | 146.9 |
| Aug 2020 | 155.3 | 146.9 |
| Jul 2020 | 157.1 | 146.7 |
| Jun 2020 | 147.8 | 145.7 |
| May 2020 | 146.6 | 145.1 |
| Apr 2020 | 132.7 | 144.7 |
| Mar 2020 | 139.1 | 144.5 |
| Feb 2020 | 145.3 | 144.7 |
| Jan 2020 | 149.8 | 143.6 |
| Dec 2019 | 145.0 | 142.1 |
| Nov 2019 | 130.5 | 140.1 |
| Oct 2019 | 135.4 | 139.2 |
| Sep 2019 | 136.6 | 138.8 |
| Aug 2019 | 133.7 | 137.2 |
| Jul 2019 | 144.2 | 135.9 |
| Jun 2019 | 135.6 | 134.1 |
| May 2019 | 128.5 | 133.2 |
| Apr 2019 | 121.6 | 132.2 |
| Mar 2019 | 120.6 | 131.0 |
| Feb 2019 | 146.9 | 130.2 |
| Jan 2019 | 143.7 | 128.0 |
| Dec 2018 | 132.7 | 127.2 |
| Nov 2018 | 124.6 | 126.0 |
| Oct 2018 | 127.8 | 125.9 |
| Sep 2018 | 129.0 | 124.9 |
| Aug 2018 | 120.4 | 123.8 |
| Jul 2018 | 116.5 | 122.5 |
| Jun 2018 | 116.5 | 121.4 |
| May 2018 | 126.2 | 121.0 |
| Apr 2018 | 130.0 | 120.3 |
| Mar 2018 | 124.6 | 119.8 |
| Feb 2018 | 106.9 | 118.6 |
| Jan 2018 | 102.4 | 117.4 |
| Dec 2017 | 117.5 | 116.0 |
| Nov 2017 | 122.3 | 115.8 |
| Oct 2017 | 119.2 | 115.4 |
| Sep 2017 | 103.4 | 114.7 |
| Aug 2017 | 93.9 | 113.0 |
| Jul 2017 | 113.5 | 112.1 |
| Jun 2017 | 122.9 | 112.0 |
| May 2017 | 121.1 | 111.6 |
| Apr 2017 | 103.4 | 111.2 |
| Mar 2017 | 97.8 | 110.5 |
| Feb 2017 | 110.1 | 110.3 |
| Jan 2017 | 124.5 | 109.5 |
| Dec 2016 | 124.5 | 108.5 |
| Nov 2016 | 120.9 | 107.6 |
| Oct 2016 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
| Sep 2016 | 92.2 | 106.3 |
| Aug 2016 | 110.9 | 106.0 |
| Jul 2016 | 112.6 | 104.9 |
| Jun 2016 | 106.3 | 104.6 |
| May 2016 | 92.6 | 104.2 |
| Apr 2016 | 89.2 | 103.4 |
| Mar 2016 | 90.3 | 102.6 |
| Feb 2016 | 88.1 | 102.2 |
| Jan 2016 | 94.8 | 102.2 |
| Dec 2015 | 99.8 | 102.6 |
| Nov 2015 | 97.4 | 102.0 |
| Oct 2015 | 97.4 | 101.6 |
| Sep 2015 | 97.8 | 101.2 |
| Aug 2015 | 100.4 | 100.8 |
| Jul 2015 | 105.5 | 101.0 |
| Jun 2015 | 102.7 | 100.1 |
| May 2015 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Every fall of 3% or more
From the peak to the lowest month after it, and how long prices took to get back.
| Peak | Low | Fall | Months falling | Months to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2015 | February 2016 | −16.5% | 7 | 4 |
| July 2016 | September 2016 | −18.1% | 2 | 2 |
| January 2017 | August 2017 | −24.6% | 7 | 7 |
| April 2018 | June 2018 | −10.3% | 2 | 6 |
| February 2019 | March 2019 | −17.9% | 1 | 10 |
| January 2020 | April 2020 | −11.5% | 3 | 3 |
| October 2020 | April 2021 | −15.0% | 6 | 5 |
| February 2022 | March 2022 | −6.2% | 1 | 4 |
| September 2022 | October 2022 | −3.9% | 1 | 2 |
| January 2023 | November 2023 | −15.3% | 10 | 6 |
| May 2024 | June 2024 | −4.4% | 1 | 1 |
| October 2024 | February 2025 | −10.5% | 4 | 3 |
| May 2025 | August 2025 | −10.0% | 3 | 4 |
| January 2026 | February 2026 | −8.0% | 1 | 2 |
| June 2026 | August 2026 | −7.0% | 2 | Not yet |
Portugal against the EU since 2015
Eurostat's house price index for all dwellings, 2015 = 100. National figures, comparable across member states.
- Portugal
- EU
- 2015 = 100
Show the numbers
| Period | Portugal | EU |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 301.4 | 168.6 |
| Q1 2026 | 291.0 | 166.5 |
| Q4 2025 | 280.2 | 164.6 |
| Q3 2025 | 269.4 | 163.5 |
| Q2 2025 | 258.8 | 161.0 |
| Q1 2025 | 247.1 | 158.5 |
| Q4 2024 | 235.7 | 156.2 |
| Q3 2024 | 228.9 | 155.1 |
| Q2 2024 | 220.7 | 152.7 |
| Q1 2024 | 212.5 | 149.8 |
| Q4 2023 | 211.3 | 148.9 |
| Q3 2023 | 208.5 | 149.1 |
| Q2 2023 | 204.7 | 148.2 |
| Q1 2023 | 198.6 | 147.6 |
| Q4 2022 | 195.9 | 148.7 |
| Q3 2022 | 193.8 | 150.9 |
| Q2 2022 | 188.3 | 149.6 |
| Q1 2022 | 182.6 | 146.2 |
| Q4 2021 | 176.0 | 143.2 |
| Q3 2021 | 171.3 | 140.2 |
| Q2 2021 | 166.4 | 136.0 |
| Q1 2021 | 161.7 | 132.1 |
| Q4 2020 | 157.7 | 129.8 |
| Q3 2020 | 153.6 | 128.1 |
| Q2 2020 | 154.3 | 126.3 |
| Q1 2020 | 151.7 | 124.4 |
| Q4 2019 | 146.1 | 122.7 |
| Q3 2019 | 143.7 | 121.5 |
| Q2 2019 | 140.7 | 119.8 |
| Q1 2019 | 137.1 | 117.6 |
| Q4 2018 | 132.3 | 116.8 |
| Q3 2018 | 129.7 | 115.9 |
| Q2 2018 | 128.5 | 114.2 |
| Q1 2018 | 125.6 | 112.3 |
| Q4 2017 | 121.1 | 111.2 |
| Q3 2017 | 119.6 | 110.4 |
| Q2 2017 | 115.5 | 108.8 |
| Q1 2017 | 111.9 | 106.9 |
| Q4 2016 | 109.6 | 106.1 |
| Q3 2016 | 108.3 | 105.4 |
| Q2 2016 | 106.9 | 103.8 |
| Q1 2016 | 103.7 | 102.0 |
| Q4 2015 | 101.8 | 101.1 |
| Q3 2015 | 100.7 | 100.8 |
| Q2 2015 | 100.6 | 99.8 |
| Q1 2015 | 96.9 | 98.3 |
Bank valuations go back to 2011, so they include the fall after the euro crisis; asking prices start in 2015. A fall counts once prices drop 3% below a peak, and ends when they are back at it.
Other reports for Lagoa
Asking prices have an 80% chance of landing between €4,232/m² and €4,598/m² by September 2027.
- Expected, September 2027
- €4,415/m²
- Chance of a rise
- 98%
At the bank valuation, a 90 m² home costs €268,920. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is €1,020 a month. Banco de Portugal caps it at 50% of a household's net income.
- Payment, two incomes
- 45%
- Payment, one income
- 91%
Renting a 90 m² home costs less each month than owning it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the median sale price. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.
- Rent per month
- €894
- Owning per month
- €1,064
Sellers ask 38.4% more than banks value homes at. A year ago the gap was +59.5%.
- Gap today
- +38.4%
- Change in a year
- −21.1 pp
66.4% more homes were licensed for construction in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.
- Licensed, 12 months
- 143
- Per 1,000 residents
- 5.0
Over the last 12 months, buyers domiciled abroad paid 27.3% more per m² than buyers living in Portugal.
- Abroad against residents
- +27.3%
In 2025 the population grew by 78 while 58 homes were finished: 1.3 new residents for every new home.
- New residents per new home, 2025
- 1.3
- Population change, 2025
- +78
9.1% of the 21,104 homes counted in the 2021 census stood empty, whether for sale, to let or for other reasons.
- Empty, 2021 census
- 9.1%
- Empty homes
- 1,919
In 2025, 55% of the buildings finished were work on existing buildings: extensions, alterations and reconstructions.
- Work on existing buildings, 2025
- 55%
- Reconstructions per 100 new buildings
- 0.0
Public bodies signed €23.7K of housing works here in 2025, and €6.4M since 2012.
- Signed in 2025
- €23.7K
- Per resident, 2025
- €1
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