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Guarda district · report

Past price cycles in Guarda district

Asking prices have fallen by 3% or more 3 times since 2015. The deepest began in June 2016.

Deepest fall
−15.1%
Recovery from the low
69 months

Prices in Guarda district and Portugal, indexed

Asking prices, both set to 100 in January 2015.

  • Guarda district
  • Portugal
  • 100 = January 2015
Show the numbers
PeriodGuarda districtPortugal
Sep 2026134.7320.6
Aug 2026133.3318.5
Jul 2026129.0318.8
Jun 2026127.4318.9
May 2026127.0317.6
Apr 2026127.2317.6
Mar 2026127.2315.2
Feb 2026122.5311.9
Jan 2026122.4309.0
Dec 2025124.5305.9
Nov 2025121.3304.2
Oct 2025115.9300.2
Sep 2025111.8297.2
Aug 2025114.0296.2
Jul 2025111.8295.1
Jun 2025110.7291.8
May 2025109.1287.1
Apr 2025105.9284.7
Mar 2025105.9281.2
Feb 2025107.3277.6
Jan 2025106.3273.4
Dec 2024106.4270.1
Nov 2024109.7265.9
Oct 2024108.4263.2
Sep 2024106.8261.8
Aug 2024102.7260.8
Jul 2024102.3260.6
Jun 2024101.1258.4
May 2024101.8257.0
Apr 2024103.9253.3
Mar 2024103.9251.4
Feb 2024103.0249.5
Jan 2024102.0248.1
Dec 2023102.0245.0
Nov 2023102.0242.8
Oct 2023100.5239.1
Sep 202398.6237.3
Aug 202397.7236.8
Jul 202397.1237.6
Jun 202396.6237.4
May 202397.1235.3
Apr 202397.5234.3
Mar 202394.1232.1
Feb 202394.8230.9
Jan 202394.5229.4
Dec 202295.5228.3
Nov 202295.2227.8
Oct 202293.4224.3
Sep 202292.5223.0
Aug 202294.6222.6
Jul 202293.7222.3
Jun 202292.8222.2
May 202294.3221.9
Apr 202292.7220.8
Mar 202293.9220.9
Feb 202295.2219.9
Jan 2022100.0218.9
Dec 2021100.4218.7
Nov 202198.9218.1
Oct 202198.7216.8
Sep 202198.2214.2
Aug 202196.2213.3
Jul 202198.0212.5
Jun 202198.2210.6
May 202197.9209.3
Apr 202198.6208.2
Mar 202197.0208.1
Feb 202196.8207.4
Jan 202196.1207.9
Dec 202097.1206.7
Nov 202098.0205.0
Oct 202097.3202.4
Sep 202098.6200.1
Aug 202097.9199.0
Jul 202095.9197.8
Jun 202090.9198.8
May 202093.0199.6
Apr 202091.6200.6
Mar 202090.9198.6
Feb 202092.3197.3
Jan 202092.7195.0
Dec 201992.5196.3
Nov 201992.7195.2
Oct 201991.2194.7
Sep 201990.5194.4
Aug 201990.5194.6
Jul 201991.6194.7
Jun 201992.8191.8
May 201993.9187.3
Apr 201993.0183.2
Mar 201991.8181.2
Feb 201991.1178.9
Jan 201991.4177.1
Dec 201890.3176.6
Nov 201890.5175.2
Oct 201892.5173.1
Sep 201895.0169.1
Aug 201894.8165.9
Jul 201895.9165.4
Jun 201893.9161.8
May 201895.7160.3
Apr 201897.5156.9
Mar 201898.6155.3
Feb 201898.2154.6
Jan 201897.7152.2
Dec 201797.3152.6
Nov 201797.7150.8
Oct 201797.5148.7
Sep 201799.6145.5
Aug 201799.1143.5
Jul 2017100.0141.0
Jun 201799.3139.1
May 201799.1135.9
Apr 201799.6135.7
Mar 201799.3134.3
Feb 201799.1132.1
Jan 201798.0130.5
Dec 201697.5129.4
Nov 201699.1128.6
Oct 201698.6126.0
Sep 201698.2122.5
Aug 201698.4119.3
Jul 2016104.7115.2
Jun 2016106.4115.1
May 2016105.7113.9
Apr 2016106.1113.2
Mar 2016102.1114.2
Feb 2016102.1113.9
Jan 2016104.1112.6
Dec 2015103.2110.6
Nov 2015102.1108.8
Oct 2015102.5108.2
Sep 2015102.0107.5
Aug 2015102.1106.6
Jul 2015100.5105.7
Jun 2015104.1106.1
May 2015103.6103.7
Apr 2015103.6101.7
Mar 2015102.7101.0
Feb 2015102.1100.0
Jan 2015100.0100.0

Every fall of 3% or more

From the peak to the lowest month after it, and how long prices took to get back.

PeakLowFallMonths fallingMonths to recover
June 2015July 2015−3.4%16
June 2016December 2018−15.1%3069
November 2024March 2025−3.4%43

Portugal against the EU since 2015

Eurostat's house price index for all dwellings, 2015 = 100. National figures, comparable across member states.

  • Portugal
  • EU
  • 2015 = 100
Show the numbers
PeriodPortugalEU
Q2 2026301.4168.6
Q1 2026291.0166.5
Q4 2025280.2164.6
Q3 2025269.4163.5
Q2 2025258.8161.0
Q1 2025247.1158.5
Q4 2024235.7156.2
Q3 2024228.9155.1
Q2 2024220.7152.7
Q1 2024212.5149.8
Q4 2023211.3148.9
Q3 2023208.5149.1
Q2 2023204.7148.2
Q1 2023198.6147.6
Q4 2022195.9148.7
Q3 2022193.8150.9
Q2 2022188.3149.6
Q1 2022182.6146.2
Q4 2021176.0143.2
Q3 2021171.3140.2
Q2 2021166.4136.0
Q1 2021161.7132.1
Q4 2020157.7129.8
Q3 2020153.6128.1
Q2 2020154.3126.3
Q1 2020151.7124.4
Q4 2019146.1122.7
Q3 2019143.7121.5
Q2 2019140.7119.8
Q1 2019137.1117.6
Q4 2018132.3116.8
Q3 2018129.7115.9
Q2 2018128.5114.2
Q1 2018125.6112.3
Q4 2017121.1111.2
Q3 2017119.6110.4
Q2 2017115.5108.8
Q1 2017111.9106.9
Q4 2016109.6106.1
Q3 2016108.3105.4
Q2 2016106.9103.8
Q1 2016103.7102.0
Q4 2015101.8101.1
Q3 2015100.7100.8
Q2 2015100.699.8
Q1 201596.998.3

Bank valuations go back to 2011, so they include the fall after the euro crisis; asking prices start in 2015. A fall counts once prices drop 3% below a peak, and ends when they are back at it.

Other reports for Guarda district

Next 12 months

Asking prices have an 80% chance of landing between €759/m² and €904/m² by September 2027.

Expected, September 2027
€831/m²
Chance of a rise
92%

Affordability

Figures for Portugal: Guarda district has no reliable figures of its own.

At the bank valuation, a 90 m² home costs €205,020. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is €778 a month. Banco de Portugal caps it at 50% of a household's net income.

Payment, two incomes
31%
Payment, one income
63%

Buy or rent

Figures for Portugal: Guarda district has no reliable figures of its own.

Owning a 90 m² home costs less each month than renting it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the median sale price. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.

Rent per month
€878
Owning per month
€715

New homes

28.1% more homes were licensed for construction in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.

Licensed, 12 months
188
Per 1,000 residents
1.4

Foreign buyers

Figures for Portugal: Guarda district has no reliable figures of its own.

Over the last 12 months, buyers domiciled abroad paid 33.5% more per m² than buyers living in Portugal.

Abroad against residents
+33.5%

People and new homes

In 2025 the population fell by 663 while 88 homes were finished.

Homes finished, 2025
88
Population change, 2025
−663

Empty homes

15.9% of the 131,320 homes counted in the 2021 census stood empty, whether for sale, to let or for other reasons.

Empty, 2021 census
15.9%
Empty homes
20,912

Renovation

In 2025, 24% of the buildings finished were work on existing buildings: extensions, alterations and reconstructions.

Work on existing buildings, 2025
24%
Reconstructions per 100 new buildings
7.0

Public housing works

Public bodies signed €14.1M of housing works here in 2025, and €32M since 2012.

Signed in 2025
€14.1M
Per resident, 2025
€101

Data: INE, ECB and others · updated October 27, 2026

Asking prices and bank valuations are not sale prices. This is a description of public data, not financial advice.

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